← Back to Briefings
June 4, 2026
Tim Hortons
Would you pitch this to your MD?
In 2018, Restaurant Brands International and Cartesian Capital Group took Tim Hortons into China to enter the country’s rapidly growing coffee market.
The rollout was aggressive: the first Shanghai store opened in 2019, and by the end of 2025, Tims China had scaled to over 1,000 stores across 90+ cities, making China one of Tim Hortons’ largest international markets by store count.
But scale did not solve its positioning.
China’s coffee market turned into a brutal price war: Luckin and Cotti dominated the value end with $1.40 coffee, while Starbucks held at $4.50 and Tim Hortons $3.20.
The result: same-store sales pressure, store closures, and continued losses. Tims China has received a Nasdaq delisting notice for trading below $1.
Now they’re repositioning around coffee + freshly prepared food: breakfast, bagels, and lunch boxes designed to capture commuter demands, increase food attachments, and support a larger franchising push.
Across China’s coffee market, food is becoming less of an add-on and more central to the business model. Tim Hortons China is trying to follow that now, but cash remains tight, ticket sizes are still under pressure, and adjusted corporate EBITDA briefly turned positive in Q2 2025 before swinging back to a loss in Q3, and full-year corporate profitability and free cash flow remain under pressure.
This isn’t about a good common equity story. It’s whether there is a creditor-led control, debt, or restructuring angle worth looking at.
Would you put this in front of your MD - and what's your recommendation?