Blue Bottle Coffee

Blue Bottle Coffee - The farewell letter to the 3rd wave The VC backed 3rd wave Coffee roaster ‘Blue Bottle’ was sold to Nestlé at $425m for 68% in September of 2017, with an estimated total valuation of $700m. That Valuation was cut in half when Luckin Coffee’s ‘Centurium Capital’ bought it at a loss at $400m in March 2026. This not only gives the Luckin Coffee Chain with 33,596 locations a foothold in the US market but it now has a shot at competing against Starbucks… The purchase of Blue Bottle isn’t something that signalled “coffee isn’t coffee anymore.” We already knew that from the: 2012’s JAB’s Acquisition of Peets, to 2020’s VC funded Blank Street and 2025’s PE acquired Philz. That this 'commodity’ is now being rewritten from what we thought we enjoyed in the 2nd & 3rd wave to what the US once saw as ‘cheap dirt to wake us up’. The $4 perfectly crafted, easy to order, quick to purchase, is the complete opposite of what PE and VC companies originally acquired them for. The shift in the consumer market is not the only shift we can see. As we take a look at the actual market that built the USP of experience and craft, its changing to a quick, easy and drinkable SP. Have we entered the 4th wave?